Transportation Outlook 2035 Socioeconomic Forecasts
The Challenge: Planning for Tomorrow
Planning a transportation system for generations to come is a complex task. How many people will live here? Where will they work? What kind of transportation service will they want and need? Questions like these are important to look at when putting together a long-range transportation plan. The following forecasts, covering the years 2000-2035, were considered when drafting this plan.
A region of nearly 3 million
- By 2035, the region’s population will grow about 18% – reaching a total of nearly 3 million people. Carroll County is projected to have the highest percentage population growth within the region at 55%.
- By 2035, the elderly population in the region will grow in size to 20% of the regional population and will make up 25% of the region’s driving age population.
- The region can expect growth of 29% (an increase of 451,600 jobs), totaling nearly 2 million jobs in 2035.
- Anne Arundel County will by far add the greatest number of jobs - 157,000 (53% increase), while Harford County is projected to experience the highest percentage of growth in employment – growing by 72% with 69,000 new jobs. These significant increases are largely a result of the federal Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) program.
- Howard County will also see a large increase in the number of jobs – adding 100,000 new jobs for a 65% increase.
- The region’s labor force is expected to grow by about 198,000. Yet, the number of jobs in the region will reach 451,600. The reason for this huge gap? - Baby Boomers. By 2035, over ¼ of a million people will reach retirement age and many of them will leave the workforce.
This expected jobs/labor force imbalance will increase the distance people will travel for work, as well as produce longer commute times and more congested roadways.
- The traditional pattern of work trips starting in the suburbs going into the city will be replaced by a pattern of work trips going from one suburb to another suburb.
- The percentage of people using transit to get to work is projected to remain constant at around 8%.
- Severe congestion during the morning commute on interstates will increase from 17% in 2000 to a projected 44% in 2035. For all roadways during the evening commute in 2035, severe congestion will increase by 258%.
- Despite the increased miles of travel since 1980, the region’s air quality has improved. There have been fewer unhealthy air days. This is due in part to stricter standards for motor vehicles, as well as power plants and factories.
Although cars are getting cleaner, future projections for growth in vehicle travel make it more important than ever to control emissions from the transportation sector.
The Baltimore Regional Transportation Board (BRTB) has released the final version of Transportation Outlook 2035, the long-range transportation plan for the Baltimore region. |  |
For more information:
Regina Aris, raris@baltometro.org or 410-732-9572.
Links within this web site:
Citizens Advisory Committee
Short-range transportation planning
Federal Requirements for Long Range Planning
Transportation 2030
The Transportation Outlook 2035 Update is an easy way to learn more about the planning process, find out how you can get involved, and stay up-to-date on upcoming activities and outreach events.
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 14 January 2009 12:09