Demographic & Socioeconomic Forecasting
Why Do We Need Forecasts?
Why should we care about population or employment forecasts in a long-range transportation plan?
Where and how the region grows will affect where and how the region travels. To accommodate changes in population and in the kinds of employment opportunities available to the workforce, the region will need a transportation system that provides effective options for everyone.
Cooperative Forecasting Group
The Cooperative Forecasting Group (CFG) consists of representatives of state and local planning agencies. This group develops and maintains population, household, and employment forecasts for the Baltimore metropolitan region.
Round 8B Forecasts
In August 2016, the Baltimore Regional Transportation Board (BRTB) endorsed the Round 8B long-range forecasts developed by the CFG. The Round 8B forecasts are updates to the Round 8A cooperative forecasts, which the BRTB endorsed in June 2014. The Round 8B forecasts provide the spatial location and concentration of population, households, and employment. These data points serve as key inputs to the region’s travel demand model. Planners use this model to simulate individuals’ work and non-work travel patterns. Output from the travel demand model helps to identify regional transportation needs. This informs the decisions the BRTB will make about potential new projects in developing the long-range transportation plan.
Coordinating with Other Regions
The BRTB staff also uses forecasts in discussions on bi-regional growth assumptions with planning organizations in adjoining regions. These include the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and Wilmington Area Planning Commission.
For more information about Round 8A or demographic forecasting in general, please contact:
Shawn Kimberly, firstname.lastname@example.org