BRTBNotes - October 2002, Issue 43

October 2002, Issue 43

Contents

• Transportation Emergency Preparedness Being Addressed at all Levels
• Looking for Low Fares? Fly BWI!
• Vision 2030 Survey Results
• Survey Findings at Three Major Regional Airports (1992-2000)
• Errant 9-1-1 Calls Interfere with Emergencies
• BRTB Meets
• Highlight: Travel Demand Forecasting Models
• Putting the Pedal to the Metal Worsens Air Quality
• Did You Know?...

Transportation Emergency Preparedness Being Addressed at All Levels
 

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Looking for Low Fares? Fly BWI!
According to a recent survey, many passengers are choosing the Baltimore/Washington International Airport (BWI) over Reagan National and Dulles because of its proximity and lower fares. The importance of low fares to travelers has skyrocketed in the last 10 years. Recently, 32 percent of BWI users said their primary reason for selecting BWI was “lowest fare,” while only 3 percent of passengers said the same in 1992.

The survey, conducted by the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG), questioned passengers at three major airports-BWI, Dulles and Reagan National. The results provide data for air systems and master planning processes at the three airports. Data are also incorporated into the regional travel demand models, used to forecast travel and vehicle emissions. Listed below are some of the changes in the three airports between 1992 and 2000, as revealed by the survey.

These findings are consistent with regular surveys of BWI parking lots conducted by BMC.

For more information on the TPB study, contact Mark Rawlings at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments at 202-962-3488 or mrawlings@mwcog.org. For information on the BWI parking lot surveys, contact Keith Batcher at kbatcher@baltometro.org or 410-732-0500 ext. 1032.

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Vision 2030 Survey Results
As part of the regional visioning process, a telephone survey of attitudes of 1,200 Baltimore region residents was completed in June 2002. This survey provides a basis for understanding the core values and strategies that are important to citizens. In addition, questions were asked that are similar to those asked in national surveys for purposes of comparison. Highlights of the survey results are as follows:

• When asked to divide a hypothetical $100 between four key areas, respondents spent an average of $50 on education, $21 on crime, $16 on drug rehabilitation, and $10 on transportation.
  
  
• Sixty-three percent are concerned “a great deal” about the pollution of the Chesapeake Bay, while 27 percent are “most concerned.”
  
  
• Concern for loss of open space is most clearly seen from residents in rural counties.
  
  
• More residents in Baltimore City feel that growth in the region is too slow, while residents in at least two counties (Carroll and Harford) felt that growth has been too fast.
  
  
• Most residents work in the region (90 percent). The majority (61 percent) work within the city or county in which they live.
  
  
• Baltimore citizens are more concerned about crime/drugs and traffic/transportation compared to national rankings (see right for ranking of major of local concerns).

• Air travel in the Baltimore/Washington region has increased 55 percent.
  
  
• In 2000, BWI had 38 percent of originating trips, Dulles had 28 percent, Reagan National had 34 percent compared to 25, 32, and 43 percent, respectively, in 1992.
  
  
• Non-business trips increased as a percentage of total trips from 40 to 50 percent.
  
  
• The percentage of survey respondents who said they were flying out of their preferred airport decreased from 84 percent to 76 percent.
  
  
• Sixty-three percent of all arriving passengers used a private car to get to the airport (up from 60 percent).
  
  
• Twelve percent of passengers leaving from Reagan National used Metrorail, continuing to be one of the highest proportions of public transit usage of any airport in the country.
  
  
• Approximately one percent of trips to BWI were made using Amtrak/MARC or light rail.

Wireless “cell” phones may provide added safety and convenience for users. However, growing cell phone use is presenting a new and unusual challenge to the people who respond to user calls for help. Errant wireless calls have become a significant issue for the region’s 9-1-1 centers. According to Mr. J. Scott Whitney, Coordinator of the Maryland Emergency Number Systems Board, “One does not have to spend much time in a 9-1-1 call center to hear stories of the open-ended 9-1-1 cell phone calls where the taker/dispatcher must listen to the ‘keys in the pocket’ or ‘flashlight in the glove box’ as the inadvertent instant 9-1-1 call has been placed and the phone owner is oblivious.”

Please remember, if you use a wireless telephone, be sure to set it so it cannot call 9-1-1 inadvertently.

According to Ms. Cathy Kurnas, Communications Manager of the Anne Arundel County Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP), approximately 35 percent of the total wireless calls in July were dropped calls. In Prince George’s County, the PSAP received 50,755 “regular telephone” 9-1-1- calls and 27,109 wireless 9-1-1 calls in July. Anecdotal evidence from these call takers suggests that approximately 50 percent of the wireless calls were hang-up or errant calls.

While the full extent of the problem of unintentional wireless calls to 9-1-1 centers is not known, it is clear that the problem is significant. Please remember, if you use a wireless telephone, be sure to set it so it cannot call 9-1-1 inadvertently. This simple action will allow 9-1-1 centers to handle true emergencies in a timelier manner.

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BRTB Meets
At the August 27th meeting, three resolutions were presented and approved. After addressing issues that arose the previous month, Resolution #03-3, which provides guidelines for confidentiality relating to sensitive information on regional emergency preparedness, passed. Resolution #03-4 amended the TIP to allow two transit initiatives to move forward. Resolution #03-5 endorsed a new set of socio-economic forecasts, Round 5-D, which are based on population and household data from the 2000 Census.

The designated members and their empowered representatives attended the September 17th meeting. Mr. Donald Fry, Vision 2030 Oversight Committee Chairman, provided a summary of key findings from a telephone survey of 1,200 households in the region. Ms. Merrylin Zaw-Mon, Deputy Secretary of the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), provided insight on state issues relating to sprawl, drought, the Chesapeake Bay, and MDE’s new headquarters. In addition, Ms. Zaw-Mon addressed upcoming air quality issues, including implementation of the 8-hour ozone standard and designation of nonattainment areas for fine particulate matter. The BRTB welcomed Mr. Robert L. Smith, the new MTA Administrator.

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Highlight: Travel Demand Forecasting Models:

POWERFUL TOOLS FOR DECISION MAKERS
Regional decision makers need advanced tools to make transportation decisions. A travel demand forecasting model, now computer assisted, estimates travel behavior and demand for a specific future time frame, based on a number of assumptions. With growing constraints on funding and limits on potential enhancements to the region’s transportation system, the ability to forecast the alternative effects of various transportation policies and programs has become essential. The strength of modern travel demand forecasting is the ability to ask critical “what if” questions about proposed plans and policies.

How does a travel demand model work?
Traditionally, an approach known as the “four-step process” has been used for regional transportation planning analysis. As its name implies, this process has four basic phases: (1) trip generation (the number of trips to be made); (2) trip distribution (where those trips go); (3) mode choice (how the trips will be divided among the available modes of travel); and (4) trip assignment (predicting the route trips will take).

• Land use characteristics are the primary determinants of trip generation rates, since factors like the number and size of households, automobile ownership, types of activities (residential, commercial, industrial, etc.), and density of development all drive how much travel flows from or to a specific area within the region. For simplicity, a geographic unit called a transportation analysis zone (TAZ) is used. Various existing or projected characteristics within the TAZ are used to develop an overall trip generation rate for the entire TAZ. The Baltimore region has 1151 TAZs, each with its own trip producing characteristics. Currently all trips, no matter what mode of travel, are generated; however, only motorized trips (via automobile and transit) are carried through the process to assignment. Walk and bicycle trips are not yet fully integrated into the modeling process.
  
  
• Once the model generates a certain number of trips from each TAZ, it needs to determine to which zone each trip goes. This trip distribution analysis involves a sophisticated process for weighting the “attractiveness” of each TAZ based on the number of attractions it has and the travel time from other TAZs. This step leads to a picture of origin and destination points within the region and how many trips are going between each pair of TAZs – a 1151 x 1151 matrix!
  
  
• The next step, mode choice, shows which mode people use to travel between their origins and destinations; that is, whether people take transit, their own car, or a carpool to and from work or another destination. A complex submodel has been created for determining the modal choice, and is based both on certain assumptions about transit capacity, schedules, and fare levels and on real-world observations of how, when, and where people use transit.
  
  
• The final step, trip assignment, determines the routes people will take from origin to destination. Generally, the computer assumes everyone will take the quickest route to their destination. To compute route selection requires all kinds of information regarding actual or predicted congestion levels, road conditions, transit schedules and fares, traffic signal systems, etc.

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Putting the Pedal to the Metal Worsens Air Quality
In recent years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has found that quick acceleration produces more tailpipe pollution than “consistent driving.” This finding is one of many that prompted the update of EPA’s MOBILE model used to predict emissions generated from on-road vehicles.

The update, from MOBILE5b to the new MOBILE6, is a major revision and includes many advances. Most noticeable is the dramatic increase in data needs and inputs to the model, including more detailed vehicle activity. Other advances are listed in the box to the right.

The new model was released on January 29, 2002. The Baltimore region has one year to develop and submit revised motor vehicle emission budgets (MVEBs) for ozone-forming pollutants (nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds) using MOBILE6. Draft MVEBs are expected to be released for public comment in December. For more information, contact Diane Franks, Maryland Department of the Environment, dfranks@mde.state.md.us or 410-537-3245.



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Last Updated on Tuesday, 30 December 2008 09:43